下面是小编为大家整理的新冠疫情风险展望（英）（完整文档）,供大家参考。
Contents
06
Intr oduction
14
Chapter
1
Economic
shifts:
Emerging risks
fr om
structural
change
44
Chapter
5
Implications
for
decision-makers
50
Appendices
Appendix
A:
COVID-19
Risks Per ception
Survey
methodology
22
Chapter
2
Sustainability
setbacks: Emerging
risks
fr om
stalling pr ogr ess
51
Appendix
B: Survey
r esults
and sample
distribution
30
Chapter
3
Societal
anxieties:
Emerging risks
fr om
social
disruptions
56
Acknowledgements
58
Endnotes
38
Chapter
4
T echnological
dependence: Emerging
risks
fr om
abrupt adoption
C O V I D - 19
R i s k s
O u t l oo k : A P r e li m i n a r y
M a ppi n g
a n d
I t s
I m pli c a t i o ns
5
Int r oduction
6
C O V I D - 19
R i s k s
O u t l oo k : A P r e li m i n a r y
M a ppi n g
a n d
I t s
I m pli c a t i o ns
REUTERS/GUST A VO
GRAF
MALDONADO
The
first
global
pandemic
in
over
100
years, COVID-19
spr ead
across
the
world
at
an unpr ecedented
speed.
At
the
time
of
writing, over
4.5 million
cases
have
been
confirmed and
mor e
than
300,000
people
have perished. 1
Populations
in
120
countries
have been
subjected
to
lockdowns 2
to
contr ol
the virus
and
pr event
health
systems
fr om
being
overwhelmed.
This
trigger ed
an
economic crisis
with
dir e
societal
consequences,
af fecting the
lives
and
livelihoods
of
most
of
the
global population:
500
million
people
are
at
risk
of falling
into
poverty. 3
The
crisis
has
exposed
fundamental shortcomings
in
pandemic
pr eparedness,
socio-
C O V I D - 19
R i s k s
O u t l oo k : A P r e li m i n a r y
M a ppi n g
a n d
i t s
I m pli c a t i o ns
7
economic
safety
nets
and
global
cooperation. Gover nments
and
businesses
have
struggled
to
addr ess
compounding
r epercussions
in
the form
of
workforce
challenges,
disruptions
in essential
supplies
and
social
instability.
They have
had
to
balance
health
security
imperatives against
the
economic
fallout
and
rising
societal anxieties,
while
r elying
on
digital
infrastructur e
in unpr ecedented
ways.
As
countries
seek
to
r ecover , some
of
the
mor e lasting
economic,
envir onmental,
societal
and technological
challenges
and
opportunities
are
only
beginning
to
become
visible.
While societies,
governments
and
businesses collectively
grapple
with
these
possibilities,
it
is vital
to
anticipate
the
emerging
risks
generated by
the
r epercussions
fr om
the
pandemic.
The COVID-19
Risks
Outlook
seeks
to
pr ovide
a pr eliminary
pictur e
of
which
familiar
risks
may
be
amplified
by
the
crisis
and
which
new
ones may
emerge,
r ecognizing
that
key
issues
r emain to
be
analysed
–
health
and
geopolitics
among them.
This
r eport
is
an
initial
mapping
that
will be
supplemented
by
further
work including
the World
Economic
Forum ’ s
annual
Global
Risks Repor t.
A new
emerging
risks
landscape
This
r eport
taps
into
the
views
of
nearly
350 senior
risk
pr ofessionals
who
participated
in
the COVID-19
Risks
Per ception
Survey.
They
wer e asked
to
take
a
view
on
31
risks
across
thr ee dimensions:
most
likely
for
the
world,
most concer ning
for
the
world
and
most
worrisome for
companies
(see
Appendix
B for
the
full r esults).
The
economic
fallout
fr om
COVID-19
dominates companies’
risks
per ceptions.
T wo-thirds
of r espondents
identified
a
pr olonged
global r ecession
as
a
top
concer n
for
business.
Half
identified
bankruptcies
and
industry consolidation,
the
failure
of
industries
to
r ecover and
a
disruption
of
supply
chains
as
crucial worries.
The
thir d
most
worrisome
fallout
for companies
is
an
incr ease
in
cyberattacks
and data
fraud
–
accor ding
to
50%
of
r espondents
–
as
well
as
the
br eakdown
of
IT
infrastructur e and
networks,
a
top
concer n
for
companies accor ding
to
nearly
30%
of
r espondents.
Companies
are
also
concer ned
with
geopolitical disruptions
to
business,
with
mor e
than
40%
of
r espondents
rating
tighter
r estrictions
on
the movement
of
people
and
goods
among
the most
worrisome
ef fects
fr om
COVID-19.
Aggregating
the
r esults
and
analysing
the inter connections
between
them,
four
key
ar eas of
significant
challenges
emerge
fr om
the
survey as
global
concer ns,
outlined
below
and
further detailed
in
the
corr esponding
chapters
of
this r eport.
Economic
shifts:
Emerging
risks fr om
structural
change
Respondents
r eckon
that
economic
risks
in general
–
a
pr olonged
r ecession
of
the
global economy
in
particular
–
are
the
most
likely
and concer ning
fallout
for
the
world
and
companies over
the
next
18
months.
COVID-19
diminished economic
activity,
r equir ed
trillions
of
dollars
in
r esponse
packages
and
is
likely
to
cause structural
shifts
in
the
global
economy
going forwar d,
as
countries
plan
for
r ecovery
and r evival.
A
build-up
of
debt is
likely
to
bur den government
budgets
and
corporate
balances for
many
years,
global
economic
r elations could
be
r eshaped,
emerging
economies
are
at
risk
of
submerging
into
a
deeper
crisis,
while businesses
could
face
incr easingly
adverse consumption,
production
and
competition patter ns.
Although
the
dominance
of
economic concer ns
in
the
survey
is
to
be
expected,
8
C O V I D - 19
R i s k s
O u t l oo k : A P r e li m i n a r y
M a ppi n g
a n d
I t s
I m pli c a t i o ns
these
risks
have
far -r eaching
envir onmental, societal
and
technological
implications
and inter connections,
also
evident
in
the
survey
and analysed
in
this
r eport.
Sustainability
setbacks:
Emerging risks
fr om
stalling
pr ogr ess
The
gravest
envir onmental
fallout
for
the
world is
a
shortfall
of
investment
in
climate
action: 18%
of
r espondents
identified
this
risk
as
one of
the
most
likely
risk
outcomes
and
16% consider ed
it
to
be
one
of
the
most
concer ning. Even
though
industrial
production
worldwide was
cut by
lockdowns
and
shutdowns, r esulting
in
a
sharp
dr op in
emissions
and pollution
globally,
COVID-19
could
have
severe
post-crisis
ef fects
on
the
planet
and
its species.
As
countries
start
to
emerge
fr om
the immediate
health
crisis
and
work on
r ebooting their
economies,
new
working
practices
and attitudes
towards
traveling,
commuting
and consumption
may
make
it
easier
to
have
a lower
carbon
and
mor e
sustainable
r ecovery. But
omitting
sustainability
criteria
in
r ecovery ef forts
or
r eturning
to
an
emissions-intensive global
economy
risks
hampering
the
climate- r esilient
low-carbon
transition.
Y ears
of
pr ogr ess could
be
lost
through
underinvestment
in infrastructur e
adaptation,
withdrawals
fr om pr evious
commitments
and
weaker
climate activism.
This
would
give
way
to
a
vicious
cycle
of
continued
envir onmental
degradation, biodiversity
loss
and
further
zoonotic
infectious disease
outbr eaks.
Societal
anxieties:
Emerging
risks fr om
social
disruptions
Another
infectious
disease
outbr eak
is
of greatest
concer n
among
societal
risks
for the
world,
accor ding
to
40%
of
r espondents, with
30%
identifying
this
as
a
likely
outcome. In
addition
to
the
dangers
to
public
health,
the
pandemic
and
r esulting
lockdowns
and shutdowns
could
have
long-lasting
ef fects on
people
and
societies.
High
structural unemployment
–
perceived
as
the
second most
concer ning
risk
for
the
world
–
is
likely to
exacerbate
inequality
and
af fect
mental health
and
societal
cohesion,
in
addition
to its
dir ect economic
consequences.
Individual and
social
well-being
are
also
likely
to
be af fected
by
an
accelerated
automation
of
the
workforce,
which
25%
of
r espondents indicated
is
likely
to
r esult
fr om
the
cor onavirus crisis.
One-thir d
of
r espondents
also
expect
a developing
economy
to
collapse
in
the
medium term,
which
would
have
dir e
humanitarian consequences
as
vulnerable
gr oups
would suf fer
the
worst impacts.
There
are
also
gr owing risks
to
personal
fr eedom,
well-being,
and
the educational
and
wealth
prospects
of
the
young generation.
T echnology
dependence: Emerging
risks
fr om
abrupt adoption
T echnology
has
been
central
to
the
way
people, companies
and
governments
have
managed the
COVID-19
crisis
and
the
contact-fr ee economy
may
also
cr eate
new
employment opportunities
in
the
post-pandemic
world.
However , a
gr eater
dependence
on
technology has
incr eased
cybersecurity
risks.
Accor ding
to 38%
of
the
risk
experts
surveyed,
new
working patter ns
leading
to
cyberattacks
and
data
fraud are
the
most
likely
technological
fallout
risk
for the
world.
The
rapid
r oll-out
of
new
technology solutions
has
exacerbated
other
risks,
such
as
digital
fragmentation,
privacy
violations and
inequality.
Thus,
COVID-19
is
likely
to
challenge
the
r elationship
between
technology and
governance,
while
mistrust
or
misuse
of technology
could
have
long-lasting
ef fects
on society.
C O V I D - 19
R i s k s
O u t l oo k : A P r e li m i n a r y
M a ppi n g
a n d
I t s
I m pli c a t i o ns
9
An opportunity
to
build
back better
The
method
for
analysing
the
data
draws
fr om 15
years
of
experience
on
The
Global
Risks Report
series,
looking
at
how
risks
inter connect with
and
shape
each
other . The
r esults
of
the
survey
and
the
associated
analyses
are not
intended
as
forecasts.
Instead,
they
are a
r eminder
of
t...
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