下面是小编为大家整理的美国百货零售行业记分卡（2022年）,供大家参考。
Dept
Stores
/
Spec
Softlines
Boss’
Retail
Sector
Scorecard,
Model
Overhaul
& Updated
Risk/Rewards;
Adding
DG
to
AFL
North America Equity Research 23
March
2020
To
incorporate
the
impact
of
the
COVID-19
pandemic
across
our
Retail Coverage Universe (including Dept Stores, Global Brands, Specialty Retail, Off- Price, Dollar & Discount stores) – we have taken a deep-dive model approach to assess the financial P/L implications and updated stock risk/rewards across our 30+ company universe assuming (i) Brick/mortar mandatory closures remain in place
across
USA/Europe
through
mid-April,
and
a
(ii)
Prolonged
U-shaped recovery
(rather
than
V-shaped
scenario)
modeling
materially
negative
same- store-sales
through
July
(post
B/M
closures)
with
gradual
step- stone
improvement
in
2H20
(incorporating
a
~6
month+
recessionary
lag scenario). By the Numbers: Our FY20 EPS across our 30+ retail stock universe (including Dept Stores, Global Brands, Specialty Retail, Off-Price, Dollar & Discount stores) now
reflects
year-over-year
contraction
of
~30%
comprised
of
134%
YOY contraction in 1Q and -50% contraction in 2Q20 modeling improvement to ~22% contraction in 2H20 on average. By sub-sector – our updated models reflect a 2020 EPS
decline
of
-60%
for
the
Department
stores,
-49%
contraction
across
Specialty Softlines, -21% YOY decline for Off-Price retail, -26% decline for the Global Brands and
+6%
growth
across
the
Dollar
Stores/Discount
Retailers.
To
put
this
into perspective, our coverage group is down an average of 46% from the market peak on Feb.
19th
(vs.
S&P
500’s
–32%
decline)
with
“distressed
retail”
(i.e.
Department Stores/Specialty
Retail)
now
trading
at
~3.1x
our
FY21
EBITDA
versus
Dollar Stores/Discounters & Off-Price retailers trading at 8.3x FY21 EBITDA and the Global Brands
at
a
5.1x
average
multiple.
Digging
into
the
balance
sheets
of
distressed retail
–
debt
leverage
adjusted
for
leases
moves
to
a
peak
of
4.9x
in
FY20
on average relative to 3.7x in FY19. Digging Deeper Into Boss’ Sector Scorecard: (I) Balance
Sheet
Deep-Dive:
(i) Debt-Free:
OLLI,
LULU,
URBN,
AEO. (ii) Adjusted
Leverage
sub
3x (Pre-COVID):
LULU
(1.2x),
ROST
(1.7x),
DDS (1.9x),
OLLI
(2.0x),
KSS
(2.4x),
TJX
(2.4x),
JWN
(2.7x),
FIVE
(2.8x),
M
(2.8x). (iii) Adjusted
Debt
leverage
>
4x
On
Updated
JPM
Models:
JCP
(11x),
ANF (5.5x), GPS (5.3x), LB (5.3x), BIG (4.7x), URBN (4.3x), AEO (4.3x), and M (4.0x). (iv) Highest
Covenant/Maturity
Risk:
M
(potential
covenant
breach
in
2020
at >3.75x
leverage), UAA
(potential covenant breach in
2020 at >3.25x leverage), JCP (May bond payment), and GPS ($1.25B of notes due April 2021). To date companies across
our
coverage
have
drawn
$7.5B
from
revolvers
including
M
($1.5B),
JCP ($1.25B), TJX ($1B), KSS ($1B), LB ($950M), ROST ($800M), BURL ($400M), FL ($330M), and AEO ($330M) (II) Demographic Profiles: (i) Past Recession SSS Beneficiaries: DG (+7.2% SSS in FY09/10),
DLTR
(+6.8%
SSS
in
FY09/10),
OLLI
(+8.0%
SSS
in
FY09),
FIVE (+13.9% SSS in FY09/10), TJX (+3.5% SSS in FY09/10), and ROST (+5.5% SSS in FY09/10) .
(ii) Negative
Reverse
Wealth
Effect
for
High
Household
Income Consumer:
JWN,
URBN
(Anthro),
GPS
(BR),
TPR,
&
CPRI .
(iii)
Long-Term Retailing
–
Department
Stores
& Specialty
Softlines
Matthew
R.
Boss,
CPA
AC
(1-212)
622-2630
matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com
Bloomberg
JPMA
BOSS
<GO>
Steven
Zaccone,
CFA
(1-212)
622-8996
steven.zaccone@jpmorgan.com
Grace
Smalley,
CFA
(1-212)
622-4894
grace.smalley@jpmorgan.com
J.P.
Morgan
Securities
LLC
See page 74 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com
Models
w/
“Potential”
Catalyst
to
Emerge
Stronger: (i) BURL (branded
cycle accelerator) and (ii) FDO (traffic flow to remodeled/re-bannered doors). How to Position By Sub-Sector: (1) Overweight
Defensive
Growth
and
Value-Retail:
Dollar
Stores:
Adding Overweight
DG
to
Analyst
Focus
List
w/
favorable
risk/reward
on
Neutral-rated DLTR. Discount Retail: Remain Overweight OLLI & FIVE. Off-Price Retail: “Back- end” disruption/recession beneficiary Overweight BURL/TJX/ROST.
(2) Global
Brands:
Own
high-quality
“managed”
compounders
(OW-rated LULU/VFC/NKE) with LULU’s wholesale-light distribution model best positioned on a relative basis.
(3) Underweight Dept Stores & Mall-based Specialty Retail: adverse combination of (i) prolonged recession risk, (ii) changing consumer behavior (e-comm vs. B&M), (iii) debt/credit model leverage.
Boss’ Updated Model Implications: Department Stores: Material EPS Reductions w/ BS Risk Elevated. M (Underweight; Lower PT to $6): We lower our FY20 EPS to $0.85 vs. prior $2.54 (& withdrawn prior guidance of $2.45-2.65) based on -12.1% FY20 comps consisting of a 31% comp decline in 1Q and 14.4% decline in 2Q improving to low-to-mid-single digit
negative
comps
in
2H20.
As
of
3/20,
M
took
actions
to
provide
additional financial
flexibility
by
accessing
its
$1.5B
credit
facility,
suspending
its
quarterly dividend,
and
is
“reviewing
all
non-essential
operating
expenses
and
reducing
2020 capital expenditures” w/ stores closed through March 31 st . Our Dec ’20 price target of $6 is based on ~3x our FY21 EBITDA (=100bps discount to pre-COVID distressed retail) noting adjusted debt leverage (at 8x rent) of 4.0x in FY20 (vs. 2.8x exiting FY19)
elevating
the
potential
for
a
credit
agreement
covenant
breach
at
3.75x (Total
Debt/LTM
EBITDA)
by
2Q/3Q20
depending
on
SSS
performance
and mgmt."s ability to reduce operating costs.
KSS (Neutral; Lower PT to $22): We lower our FY20 EPS to $1.82 vs. prior $4.37 (& withdrawn prior guidance of $4.20-4.60) based on -11.6% FY20 comps modeling a 34%
comp
decline
in
1Q
and
14.1%
decline
in
2Q.
As
of
3/19,
KSS
provided
a business
update
citing
it
had
fully
drawn
its
$1B
credit
facility
to
increase
its
cash position (KSS ended 2019 with an adjusted debt leverage ratio of 2.4x), is adjusting its operational
needs
including
a
significant
reduction
in
expenses/inventory,
and
is modifying its capital allocation plans for 2020 including decreasing capex, temporarily suspending share repurchases, and "evaluating" its dividend program w/ stores closed through at
least
April
1 st .
Our
Dec
’20
price
target
of
$22
is
based
on
~3.4x
our FY2021 EBITDA (= 50bps discount to pre-COVID distressed average & 200bps discount to 3-year average) with adjusted debt leverage (at 8x rent) reaching 3.1x in FY20 (vs. 2.4x exiting FY19). JWN (Neutral; Lower PT to $22): We lower our FY20 EPS to $1.85 vs. prior $3.38 (& withdrawn prior guidance of $3.25-3.50) based on -10.9% FY20 comps consisting of
a
24.6%
comp
decline
in
1Q
and
14%
decline
in
2Q
conservatively
modeling negative low to mid-single-digit consolidated 2H20 comps. As of 3/16, JWN provided a
business
update
citing
following
February
sales
in-line
with
expectations,
SSS experienced
a
broad-based
deceleration
over
the
past
couple
weeks
w/
mgmt.
committed to executing its $200-250M savings plan in FY20 and now making further reductions to its expense and capital expenditure plans including suspending its share repurchases. JWN stores are planned to be closed for two weeks, effective as of 3/17. JWN ended 2019 with an adjusted debt leverage ratio of 2.7x with our updated model reaching 3.0x in FY20. Our Dec ’20 price target of $22 is based on ~4x EV/FY2021 EBITDA (in-line with the 4.0x Pre-COVID distressed retail average).
DDS (Underweight; Lower PT to $32): We lower our FY20 EPS to a loss of ($1.06) vs. prior $3.20 based on -13.7% FY20 comps modeling a 37.1% comp decline in 1Q and
13.9%
decline
in
2Q
improving
to
negative
low
to
mid-single-digit
comps
in 2H20. As of 3/20, DDS mgmt. had not provided a business update from COVID-19 or communicated
a
decision
to
close
stores,
but
given
government
mandates
for
the closure of non-essential businesses and mall closures (including Simon Property Group & Taubman Centers) we expect DDS will be forced to close stores for a period of time. From
a
balance
sheet
perspective,
we
note
DDS
ended
2019
with
adjusted
debt leverage of 1.8x
and
Debt/TTM EBITDA at
1.5x. Our
reduced model implies DDS’ Deb/EBITDA will reach 2.4x by FY20 end vs. its maximum covenant of 3.5. Our Dec ’20 price target of $32 is based on ~3.5x EV/FY2021 EBITDA (50bps discount to pre-COVID distressed retail and ~200bps discount to 5-year avg). JCP
(Underweight):
We lower our FY20
EPS to a loss of ($1.56)
vs. prior ($1.22) and adjusted EBITDA to $313M vs. prior $421M based on -15.5% comps modeling a 35% comp decline in 1Q and 20% decline in 2Q improving to negative mid-to-high- single-digits
in
2H20. As of 3/20,
JCP
announced it
had
drawn
down on its
$1.25B revolver, withdrawn prior financial
guidance, and postponed its
April 7 th
analyst
day event w/ stores temporarily closed until April 2 nd . With adjusted debt leverage ending 2019 at 6.7x and peaking on our new model at 11x, we believe this business disruption substantially elevates solvency risk. For a more detailed discussion of the implications to JCP’s debt instruments, please see JPM credit research analyst Carla Casella’s 3/20 note (Pinching Its Penny"s, JCP Draws ABL. . .Our Stress Test Here). The Off-Price Roadmap: Defensive “Back-End Beneficiaries”. BURL
(Overweight & Focus List
Pick: Lower PT
to $179):
We lower our FY20 EPS to $6.14 vs. pr...